Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models

We obtained banding and recovery data from the B ird Banding Laboratory (operated by the B iological Resources Division of the US Geological Survey) for adults from 129 avian species that had been continuously banded for > 24 years. Data were partitioned by gender, banding period (winter versus summer), and by states /provinces. Data sets were initially screened for adequacy based on speci® c criteria (e.g. minimum sample sizes). Fifty-nine data sets (11 waterfowl species, the Mourning Dove and Common Grackle) met our criteria of adequacy for further analysis. We estimated annual survival probabilities using the B rownie et al. recovery model {S t , ft} in program MARK. Trends in annual survival and temporal process variation were estimated using random eþ ects models based on shrinkage estimators. Waterfowl species had relatively little variation in annual sur vival probabilities (mean CV 5 8.7% and 10% for males and females, respectively). The limited data for other species suggested similar low temporal variation for males, but higher temporal variation for females (CV 5 40%). Evidence for long-term trends varied by species, banding period and sex, with no obvious spatial patterns for either positive or negative trends in survival probabilities. An exception was Mourning Doves banded in Illinois /Missouri and Arizona /New Mexico where both males (slope 5 2 0.0122, se 5 0.0019 and females (slope 5 2 0.0109 to 2 0.0128, se 5 0.0018 2 0.0032) exhibited declining trends in survival probabilities. We believe our approach has application for large-scale monitoring. However, meaningful banding and recovery data for species other than waterfowl is very limited in North America. Correspondence: A. B. Franklin, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Room 201, Wagar Building, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 , USA. ISSN 0266-476 3 print; 1360-053 2 online/02/010267-21 © 2002 Taylor & Francis Ltd DOI: 10.1080 /0266476